Long-time followers of the site will know we like to occasionally dabble in odds. We find the markets very intriguing, given they are essentially a reflection of the combination of two things:
1: Pure chance. The actual likelihood of an outcome. How likely, in the real world, is this event to actually turn out?
2: Betting patterns. The bookies are no mugs, if hundreds of people bet on something that is unlikely by chance, the odds are shortened, and we’ll go into that in a moment.
As such, we’ve been recently looking at the odds for the SPL title, and while Celtic remain correct favourites, as they should, Rangers’ odds have dramatically closed.
Celtic, at the time of writing, were 4/11 favourites.
For those of you unfamiliar with the metrics, this means for every £11 bet on the outcome of Celtic winning, should they do so, you’ll win £4 back. Basically, the £11 is the stake, the amount spent, and the £4 is how much you’ll get back. You get more for your pound if the number on the left is higher than the one on the right.
And this is when we get to Rangers. At the time of writing, Gerrard’s men’s odds have gone down to as little as 15/8 against. This means for every £8 spent, you’ll receive £15 back should 55 arrive.
Now, for those shortening comments earlier. Basically even though chance says Rangers do still sit behind Celtic and the odds are against, should 1,000 Rangers fans randomly bet on Rangers to win the title, the odds will reduce. They may go to 10/8. Basically the bookies would vary/reduce the odds based on the pattern, based on the notion ‘information’ has come to pass which may have changed things.
In 2014, they paid out early because thousands of punters bet on No winning in the Scottish referendum. Now, if thousands of punters have bet on No winning, it’s because they voted No, and no one knows better the outcome of a vote than the bookies when those voting then put money on what they voted for.
And Rangers currently sitting at 15/8 might still be against, but it’s getting close into evens territory.
The Bookies, including our green and whites’ friends PP, know the reality of Scottish football – when money is riding on it you have to know your stuff. And if even they have reduced Rangers odds close to evens territory, there’s something in it.