Ibrox Noise has always had a fascination for odds, Rangers’ title chances, and the press release that we received today amplified that considerably.
It reads:
Spokesperson for William Hill, Lee Phelps, said:
“Youssef Chermiti’s hat-trick at Ibrox could prove to be a key turning point in the William Hill Premiership title race, with Rangers now up to second and only two points behind today’s opponents Hearts.
“We now make Rangers the 2/1 second-favourites for the league title after their 4-2 win (from 5/2), with Celtic shortening at the head of the market – EVS from 6/5 – thanks to their game in hand.
“League leaders Hearts will be left to nurse their wounds after a tough loss in the Glasgow, and we’ve pushed Derek McInnes’ side out to 7/2 from 15/8 as a result.”
In simple terms, Rangers are now second favourites.
Now, this isn’t necessarily that beating Hearts has William Hill or any other bookie believing Rangers are second favourite. That is only part of the betting picture.
The other part is betting patterns.
AKA, after full time, loaded with pints and elation, thousands of Rangers fans put their bets on Rangers winning the title.
When a bookmaker notices a sudden swell of bets, they change the odds to reflect this. Why?
Because the more people betting on an outcome, the odds have to shorten. And that has to happen to reduce the payout if the outcome materialises.
Now, it doesn’t affect those who make their bet when it’s, say, 7/2. They will still win their full payout if Rangers win the title. But the more people making that same bet, well, big Bill Hill and others don’t want to pay out big time, so they reduce the odds. So any new bets being made on that same wave will earn less return.
The reality of it all?
Rangers, Celtic and Hearts are giving us a very entertaining title race, the best Scottish football has had in years.
Ibrox Noise, alas, still very much has Celtic as favourites, and the bookies do agree there. Timmy is odds on to bag 56 before we do.
And the way Martin O’Neill has dropped only two points all season indicates they have good grounds to believe they’ll do it.
Rangers have unfortunately dropped 4 points in the past four matches alone. Form isn’t good enough, even with the Hearts win. 8 points of 12 is tricky territory.
But it really is a rip-roaring ride this season for Rangers’ title chances.