Whatever happens across the 2025/26 Scottish Premiership campaign, it feels like the season will be a memorable one. At the very least, it looks like we are going to see a three-horse race for the title, that is, unless one of Rangers, Celtic or Hearts collapses over the next few weeks.
Rangers fans are, of course, acutely aware of how the season has waxed and waned in terms of performances. Having to wait until September 28th for a first win was not ideal, and it put a lot of pressure on Russell Martin. But Rangers have been much improved since late September, getting even better under Danny Rohl and losing only once since his appointment. And a current run of seven wins from eight has put Rohl’s men back in the title race.
The markets moved considerably in September
But how have bookmakers responded? It is certainly normal for odds to shorten and lengthen over periods of the season as bookies react to form and other events. That goes for all sports, and can be seen in markets like Super Bowl odds just as much as football. Yet, the Scottish Premiership is always unique, given the historical dominance of Celtic and Rangers. In short, you basically start with two favourites, and everyone else sits in a queue behind.
In July, just before the season began, Rangers were tagged as 2/1 shots to win the title for the first time since the 2020/2021 season. Celtic were in at 2/5, and Hearts at 25/1. Let’s be honest: few of us thought that Hearts would be in the mix. For perspective, a 2/1 price suggested Rangers had a 33% chance of winning the title.
Nonetheless, as you might expect, the sequence of draws that opened the season started to impact Rangers’ title odds. The big move came on the 13th September when Hearts beat the Gers at Ibrox. That defeat, leaving Rangers winless in six and maintaining Hearts’ unbeaten record, caused big movement in the markets, causing Hearts to become second favourites for the title. Rangers had moved out to 8/1, whereas Hearts were available at around 6/1. Crucially, for our context here, Celtic were priced at 1/8 on that weekend.
As mentioned, moving into the later autumn, results started to pick up for Rangers, even if Hearts seemed to be relentless. Rangers’ nice little stretch across late October and early November, beating Kilmarnock, Hibs, Dundee and Livingston, started to put pressure on the odds again. By December, that was becoming more apparent, especially given Celtic’s struggles and Hearts’ four-game winless streak.
Celtic Park victory put Rangers back in the hunt
The needle really began to move back in January, of course, particularly after the Gers’ victory at Celtic Park on the 3rd January. Following that up with a win at Aberdeen put Rangers’ odds back close to where they were at the start of the season, somewhere around 5/2.
And yet, in the context of the season, it should not feel that Rangers are back where they started, nor that they have regressed. As mentioned, Celtic, who are still title favourites, were odds-on at the start of the season: they are 5/4 at the time of writing; Hearts are just a shade under 2/1.
And that perhaps is the rub: While Rangers fans will want more, it feels like a storm has been weathered and the team is stronger coming out the other side. The fans want to win titles, yes, and all wish that the team was looking down on everyone else rather than looking up. Yet, most fans would gladly take the position Rangers are in now if offered it after that difficult start to the season running through to September.