Reports this morning that Sevilla are favourites to sign Alfredo Morelos really are some of the worst clickbait we’ve seen in a while.
Quite simply there is no interest we’re aware of in Morelos from Sevilla, certainly nothing new compared with the previous time, and this story is designed purely for clicks.
Where’s it coming from? The bookies, that’s who. We’re seeing the Sevilla and Morelos headline gaining traction all because one or two papers used Morelos’ name for clicks by seeking out the odds on his next club.
These odds, which are in evidence 24/7 and have been for years, regularly change, because Morelos has been linked out so many times.
Currently, it’s Sevilla at the top of the pile, but we’ve had Lille, Porto, Palace, West Ham you name it.
Bear in mind how odds actually work – they’re based on three things, one is the bookies’ own information, and that’s hard to come by. They will offer odds based on what they BELIEVE will happen according to their sources and judgement.
The second one is betting patterns. If the bookies see hundreds or thousands of bets in a short space of time for a particular outcome, they will shorten the odds on that thing happening, meaning that outcome becomes favourite. Those bets could be based on absolutely nothing, incidentally, but the bookies will still reflect them.
And third is manipulation – by offering certain odds (long ones) which have no factual basis, they can encourage betting in a particular way which will then change the odds to short. Something which wasn’t likely is then bet on and gives the bookies lots of revenue, with little to no chance of the outcome happening.
And while we couldn’t tell you which of these is happening with Morelos right now.
But as far as we know, there’s no basis of Seville’s alleged interest in Alfie.
But then we thought Goldson was staying (as did Gio, mind you) so what do any of us know?